Comeback Player of the Year

It seems now that I am constantly bombarded by adds (and very annoying ones at that - "Rip city baby!") urging me to vote for the Comeback Player of the Year. Now, I find this an interesting idea for an award but, as usual, I am skeptical about how it is defined. There is no formal definition of the specific criteria with which we should vote on MLB.com, other than "those baseball players who have re-emerged as stars on the baseball field." Conveniently, our choices are narrowed down for us, so we don't have to do too much thinking.

The thing that I have to wonder about is what constitutes a comeback? Certainly many players may be hurt for a season, but does it count as a comeback (or, I guess a big or impressive comeback) if everyone expects it? It seems that the nominees have been chosen mostly based on difference between stats this year and last, but I think there should be more consideration than that. Age and length of time struggling/injured should be considered, and I think other special considerations should be made. For instance, Mike Mussina was not nominated, as his revival this year is perhaps not a drastic as some nominees. However, if he can sustain this level of play for a couple more years, it might push him over the cusp and into The Hall. So, in a certain sense it is more significant than most listed.

As far as age, I am not even certain how best to handle this. On one hand you have a guy like Carlos Beltran, who is now 29 and in his prime. I don't think anyone expected his struggles over the last two years to continue. I think the same can be said for Edgar Renteria, and to a lesser extent Scott Rolen. Estrada and Soriano are more extreme examples. This is only Estrada's 3rd full year in the Majors, does the fact that the 2nd one wasn't very good really count as a comeback? Same with Soriano. He is only 26, and his previous career high in innings pitched was 53. Again, not so much a comeback to star level as a recovery after a setback in development.

On the other hand is Curt Schilling. At 39 as a pitcher, his comeback is quite impressive; there was no reason to really be certain he could come back to his career level. However, he has stated his intentions to retire at the end of next year. So as good of a comeback as he has staged this year, it will only be a two year comeback. That's not really a true career revival, it's really just a moderate career extension. So I think the best balance has to be somewhere in between these extremes.

There are also a few nominees, such as Corey Patterson, Joe Borowski, Johnny Estrada, and Rafael Soriano to whom attribution of the term 'star' is something of a stretch (admittedly to varying degrees). I have stated objections to Estrada and Soriano already. But Patterson, well, he was never very good; he just hit 24 homeruns in 2004. Other than that not much there, he's never even matched league average OBP. Borowski is borderline, but he has never been consistently good. He's really only had two good years before this in an 11 year career.

Magglio Ordonez has had an impressive comeback in terms of at-bats after two shortened seasons, but his numbers this year are still well below his career average. In fact, his batting average and on base percentage were better in both 2004 and 2005 than they are this year. He slugged better in 2004 than this year and not much worse in 2005. It's good to see him back on the diamond, but he has hardly returned to star form.

So it seems to me there are only three real comebacks among the candidates: Nomar, Jim Thome, and Frank Thomas. All of these guys had more than one bad year, and have improved their stats significantly this season. They are also all old enough that a comeback could not be expected, but young enough that they can still really revive their careers (OK, Thomas is 38, but he says he wants to play until he's 42 and I for one think he can). They all were, and are, genuine stars.

I don't think I'm really straying too far from the common thinking; I'm sure all of these guys will finish near the top in voting even if they don't win. I just wish MLB would be a little more clear in their definition of comeback, or a little more thoughtful in their selection of nominees. I like the idea of rewarding great comebacks that revive great careers, I just don't think it should be thrown around too lightly. And I'm concerned MLB is doing just that.