Should they stay or should they go?

Recently, much has been made of the difference in performance between prospects that the Red Sox have traded away and those they've kept. The numbers are noteworthy. Here are some of the most notable prospects whom the Sox dealt in the last few years:

Freddy Sanchez: (BA/OBP/SLG/EqA) .340/.376/.472/.285

Hanley Ramirez: .288/.354/.459/.285

Andy Marte: .236/.293/.431/.241

Anibal Sanchez: (ERA/WHIP/IP): 2.96/1.16/94.3

Cla Merideth: 0.66/.069/40.7

A pretty impressive bunch it seems. The only one struggling is Marte, but noone doubts that he will find it and he will be a star. For comparison, here are some of the prospects the Sox have been breaking in this year:

Pedroia: .122/.173/.204/.067

Lester: 4.76/1.65/81.3

Hansen: 5.71/1.56/43.7

Delcarmen: 4.93/1.54/49.3

Gabbard: 3.13/1.65/23.0

Papelbon: 0.92/0.78/68.3

Certainly not as impressive (with the notable exception of Papelbon). There are several factors that are probably behind this. I am not convinced that it is entirely scouting failures by the Sox. First off, many of these represent quite small samples, so it could be mostly an issue of chance. Further, many Sox prospects were forced into their roles by injury/ineffectiveness of those above them. The team did not plan on depending so heavily on Delcarmen, or playing Pedroia at the beginning of the year. So they may not be quite as ready as others. Another interesting idea is that Fenway is probably not a very easy place to break in. There is a tremendous amount of fan pressure on top of the pressure involved in trying to make it at that level. It is probably that much harder to rebound from poor performances, as opposed to San Diego or Florida or Cleveland or Pittsburg, where the other prospects have landed. There has also been criticism of the Sox pitching coach Dave Wallace, due to the fact that so many pitchers have done much better other places than they have for the Sox (i.e. Clement, Arroyo, Beckett, the entire bullpen this year). Since most of the prospects I mentioned are pitchers, there may be something to this.

The final, and likely most important fact is that most of the guys who were traded landed in the NL. We all know how the NL is doing these days. On his blog, Seth Mnoonkin shows some interesting stats:

"Pitcher 1: 7-0, 2.82 ERA, 1 save, 8.91 K/9, and a batting average against hovering around .200 in 8 starts and 14 relief appearances over 63.2 innings.

Pitcher 2: 7-2, 2.89 ERA, 5.48 K/9, and a .208 batting average against in 14 starts over 87.1 innings."

Very similar numbers. More K's for #1, but that's the only striking difference. "If you haven't guessed by now," Mnoonkin explains, "pitcher 1 is an amalgam of Josh Beckett (4-0, 2.83, .165 BAA), Jon Lester (3-0, 2.45 ERA, .241 BAA), Craig Hansen (1-0, 4.50 ERA, .250 BAA in 6 appearances), and Manny Delcarmen (1 save, 2.57 ERA, .231 BAA in 8 appearances) versus the National League. Pitcher 2 is Anibal Sanchez. (Sanchez, in his two AL starts, was 1-0 with a 6.30 ERA and a .326 BAA.)" So it would seem that, with the same competition, the performances are quite comparable (I know Beckett isn't one of the prospects discussed, but he is young and part of the 'long term plan' and he has struggled this year).

In the end, though, it is important to keep in mind that the first few months of a player's career cannot be seen as indicative of the rest of it. I'm sure all of these guys will pull their game together and have fine careers and we'll all be glad the Sox held onto them (well, not the Galdstoner).