Coco or Youks?

One of the interesting storylines in the Red Sox this season has been the question of whether Kevin Youkilis of Coco Crisp should be hitting leadoff. The bottom line of this debate is this: do you want high OBP or speed at the top of the order? Well, it is most certainly not that simple, but it is clear that each is advantageous in its own way. The goal of the leadoff hitter is to score runs. Players who get on base often will score more runs because, well, they are there more often to be driven in. Speedy players, on the other hand are more likely to score because the put themselves in position better. Not only do they steal bases, but they are more likely to take the extra base on any given play, say 1st to 3rd on a single or scoring on a sac fly. In particular, I find this debate interesting (not only because it is a single instantiation of the more general debate) because both players appear to be in the Sox's long term plans, and as such it is not just a debate for this year.

So, how do we balance speed with OBP? Well, I am no math wizard, and I am supposed to be working right now, so I will go with a rather simple test. Basically, I will see how many runs each player scores per plate appearance. This can be broken down into two rates, OBP and percentage of times on base in which the player scores (I will call it RSPOB or Runs Scored per On Base appearance - because I have not seen an abbreviation for this stat and because inventing one makes me feel important and original). These should correspond to the -presumed- relative strengths of Youks and Coco, respectively.

OPB is easy enough to find. So far this season Youks is OBPing .386, and Coco .322. RSPOB takes some jury-rigging, but it is still simple. Coco has 92 hits and 26 walks, for 118 times on base with 51 runs scored giving an RSPOB of .432, Youk's line reads: 139; 74; 213; 86; .404. SO we see that there is indeed statistical evidence for the common logic. Youks does get on base more often (duh), and Coco is more likely to score when on base.

Putting these stats together, we see that Youks has scored more runs per plate appearance; .155 to .138. However, this is clearly a stat dependent on those hitting behind. So far, Youks has hit leadoff most of the year, with Loretta, Manny and Ortiz following (an average SLG of .548) with Coco in the 8 hole with Gonzales, Youk, and Loretta following (an average SLG of .417). And even when Coco slipped into the leadoff spot Youk only dropped down to the 5-6 spot with guys like Lowell and the tactical nuclear weapon known as Wily Mo Pena following him. So Youkilis clearly has the advantage here. How much this has contributed to his RSPOB is tough to say. Rather than try to pry this out of the stats I have, I will compare their stats in the leadoff spot to those out of the leadoff spot.

Unfortunately, Coco has sucked when batting leadoff (.289 OBP). I will assume this is not a real trend (which I have no justification for doing, but I like Coco, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt), and ignore it by comparing leadoff RSPOBs and leaving OBP at their respective season marks. Batting leadoff, Coco has gotten on base 57 times and scored 25 runs for an RSPOB of .439, Youks has 158; 65; .411. And out of the leadoff spot Coco is at 61; 26; .426 and Youks 55; 21; .381.

When compared this way, two things become apparent. First, even if Coco were OBPing at his season average of .322 in the leadoff spot (and Youk at his full season avg of .386), he would not score runs at the rate Youk has in the leadoff spot (.158 R/PA vs .141). This is even the case if Coco OBPed at his career best rate .345 from last year (.151 R/PA). So it seems Youk should be batting leadoff given the current middle of the Sox's order.

But there is another wrinkle too. Notice that Youk's RSPOB benefits much more from the leadoff spot than Coco's. Coco's RSPOB rises 13 points, while Youk's rises a full 30 points. This make sense; mashers like Manny and Ortiz will drive just about anyone in, while guys like Gonzalez need the speed in front of them. As others have put it: Coco's speed is wasted in front of Manny and Ortiz.

So if Youk hits leadoff, not only do the Sox get runs more often from the leadoff spot (who also gets more at bats), but they do so without sacrificing nearly as much run scoring potential farther down the lineup as they gain up top. It is not merely a matter of shifting the run scoring potential up in the lineup, but there actually would appear to be a net gain in runs scored per at bat.

This may change, though, if Coco picks up his game, or if Manny finds his way to another team, or any number of hypotheticals. . . But for now, vote Youks for leadoff hitter on the Boston Red Sox.