Well, David Ortiz won't be topping Roger Maris as I had previously hoped, but he has set a new Red Sox record with 51 homeruns. It is really remarkable that only one Red Sox slugger has hit 50 in a year before, as a franchise with such a long history and a practice of stockpiling sluggers.
We are also given pause with this feat to consider Ortiz's place in history. As a one dimensional player with a body type that does not historically age well (Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn say hi), it is an interesting question as to whether he can keep it up long enough to be a hall of famer. Personally, I see him entering Jim Rice land. Jim Rice was dominant; undeniably one of the best hitters in the league for several years. But he retired at 36, apparently yet to have accumulated the career numbers to make it in to the Hall. Now, I think he belongs, and I know the Galdstoner agrees. But the point is he was a hotly contested candidate for the Hall, and I think the debate surrounding his candidacy is likely to be repeated with Ortiz.
It's not that I don't think Ortiz has several more good years, and even a few great ones, in front of him. It's just that I would be shocked if he achieves the year in, year out consistency and the longevity of a no-doubt Hall of Famer, say, Manny Ramirez.
Let's take the Jim Rice analogy and run with it, as they are quite similar players. Here are their career lines:
Player; HR; Avg; OBP; SLG
Rice; 382; .298; .352; .502
Ortiz; 228; .282; .372; .547
Rice has the edge on batting average, but Ortiz has the edge in OBP and slugging. We should keep in mind, though, that we are catching Ortiz at his peak, and these number will likely suffer some in his decline. That said, I think that if Ortiz retires with numbers that are for all intents and purposes identical to Rice, he gets in. His clutch performance, particularly the 2004 playoffs, and his popularity and subsequent value as an ambassador for MLB give him an edge that Rice lacked, at least in my mind (add another column to the stats labeled: 'walk off hits in a historic playoff and world series win'). More practically, I think he needs to hit 400 homeruns to make a truly convincing case to the electorate, that is without dealing a significant hit to his other numbers. For the record, Rice had 213 after his 7th full season.
So that's my assessment; 172 homeruns lie on David Ortiz's road to the Hall. I, for one, think he can do it.
5 comments:
I think that there is no reason why Ortiz cannot continue to hit for power for at least 4 or 5 more seasons and continue to get on base at a good clip for many more. Let's remember he is a DH. Thus, unlike Rice he won't suffer the wear and tear that comes with playing the field day in and day out. The point is, I think that it would be a shame if he didn't play well enough to deserve a place in the hall.
Also, I don't mean that to sound like I am being negative about Ortiz. I just find unfulfilled potential to be sad. When I think of players who had drug issues like Darryl Strawberry, Doc Gooden, Josh Hamilton or others whose careers just never reached the heights that they could have due to injuries like Ken Griffey Jr., Don Mattingly, Nomar Garciaparra, among recent players it makes me a little bit sad.
Good point about the DH. He's a lot less likely to go down with injury (and the only drug I'm worried about with him is chewing tobbacco). I mentioned Mo Vaughn as a similar body type, but to be fair I beleive his first real injury came when he chased a popup into the dugout shortly after he joined Anaheim. Not something likely to happen to a DH. You are also right that unfulfilled potential is very sad.
Mo Vaughn seems to be at the crux of two of hte parts of this discussion. First of all, he certainly had a career cut short by injury; he was never the same after that ankle injury that you mentioned. Secondly, when I went to baseball-reference.com to look at Ortiz's stats, I found out that Mo Vaughn is the most similar player to Ortiz up to age 29.
So Mo was cut down by a specific injury, and Cecil fielder was never nearly as good of a hitter as Ortiz anyway. I guess neither mention is really fair to Ortiz (in terms of career arc). Anyway, my basic point stands.
Post a Comment