Barry Bonds: The Ultimate Moneyball Pickup?

On of the stories this offseason that seems not to be getting too much attention is the free agency of one Barry Bonds. As the offseason wears on, and the apparent lack of interest from MLB teams continues, Bonds may become one of the best cheap pickups in baseball. Cheap, I say in terms of $/runs created; it is unlikely that he will ever be cheap in a general sense.

Let me put it this way: One of the best hitters ever, very likely the best since Ted Willimas retired 46 years ago, is available but noone seems to care. In these simplified terms this is very surprising, especially considering the FA market we have seen so far this fall. If Bonds slips below the $10M per year mark, he would be an unbeleivable value.

I do not mean to say there aren't concearns about signing Bonds. He is not much of a clubhouse presence cough*STERIODS*cough, he would bring a lot of bad publicity to whomever signs him cough*STERIODS*cough, and he could probably not be counted on to play a full season cough*STEROIDS*cough. But he will hit. And he is closing in on this record that will have fans pooring through the gates. So it is not implausible to say that a small market team in need of some fans could ride the wave through the bad publicity of even associating with the man (if it's a short term deal) and come out better in the end. And on a large market intense media team (say NY and Boston) the added press would not change how things operate in principle (hell, it's not like the yanks havn't dealt with known juicers before), in fact it might even be that Bonds, who is clearly used ot the attention, would take some pressure off of his teamates. This could be valuable in markets where the press can be crushing to more sensitive or conscientious players. And his injury concerns will be reduced if he signs with a team the has an opening at DH.

In the end though, it will be those ungodly numbers he put up at the beginning of the century that will get him a job. He simply needs to find a general manager and ownership that cares mostly about winning, and recognizes the value of signing such a hitter for what will likely be a very cheap deal. I can think of a few teams that might fit the mould, but we will see if anything happens. It may very well be that Bonds has alienated himself from the game enough that not even the Billy Beans and George Steinbrenners of the world would touch him with a 10 foot pole (that is to say, 1 year contract).

Personally, I would not mind to see Bonds disappear without getting a chance to catch Hank Aaron. This would avoid much controversy and a potential PR disaster for the game. I bet Bud Selig agrees and I would not be surprised if he is strongly pressuring teams to stay away from the slugger, thus forcing a de facto retirement with a mere 734 hrs. This may, in fact, be one of the main reasons for the silence on the Bonds front.

Either way, it's an interesting question. I think it also forces one to really think about the steroids issue if you frame it this way: "How would I feel if my team signed Bonds?" If you won't admit you'd be a little excited to see him hit, either you possess great integrity to the game, or you are lying. After all, we all know Bonds juiced, but none of us know who did and did not elsewhere in baseball. By many accounts, it is very plausible that your favorite slugger, who you hold above the likes of Bonds, was sticking needles in himslf too. And he did not put up the numbers Bonds did. I guess that's the point: who knows? Look for an interesting conclusion to this one.

I Feel Like I'm Taking Crazy Pills!

Without even explaining what this post is about I think most of you can figure it out. The free agent market has gone totally nuts. Let me start by saying that I realize that baseball is awash in revenue sharing money and that free agents were bound to get contracts that, by the standards of the past few years, were totally outrageous. However, that didn't prepare me for the stupidity of some of the GMs in major league baseball. This leads me to my new conclusion, one that I should have come to long ago: never, ever, under any circumstances underestimate the stupidity and poor reasoning abilities of GMs and owners.

Let's take apart the two biggest signings so far, one bad and the other nothing less than excrable, and I will explain exactly what is so tremendously idiotic about them. First the bad. The Cubs signed Alfonso Soriano for $136 million over 8 years. This is not the dumbest move I have ever seen but it is pretty dumb. Keith Law put it best: "So, let me get this straight: The team that finished last in the National League in OBP in 2006 (and, not coincidentally, second-to-last in runs scored) with a .319 team mark just signed a left fielder with a .320 career OBP and a .337 OBP in 2006 (both figures exclude intentional walks) to replace a guy with a .365 OBP in 2006." The thing is, Soriano might be worth that much money for a team like the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, etc. Teams that already have high OBPs. However, the Cubs were the worst possible suitor for Soriano in that he just adds to their weaknesses. In addition, they signed him for 8 years! That is an insanely long contract for a guy who counts on his quick bat and speed as important facets of his game. He'll be 38 in the last year of his contract. While some might say that this is okay since players are increasingly playing better for longer, I just don't see a guy with Soriano's strengths (bat speed, foot speed) and weaknesses (poor pitch selection, hands of stone) as a player who will continue to play well as he approaches his middle age years.

Next let's tackle a signing that I think is one of the worst I have seen in years: Juan Pierre's. Once again, a very good breakdown of why this is so terrible is available in Keith Law's blog entry about it. Juan Pierre was a prime contributor to the Cubs OBP woes last year, so he obviously won't help the Dodgers in that category. In addition, they have three good young players (Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and James Loney) who will most likely be able to perform at the level that Pierre does for much less money. I don't mean this is stupid because down the road they will regret having this contract when they have good young players to take Pierre's place. Rather, I mean that all three young players, right now, are about as good as Juan Pierre. Thus, the Dodger's brain trust has taken what would have been a cheap up and coming outfield and turned it into a low-OBP incredibly overpaid outfield. Stupid, stupid, stupid, and that is the last word on that.

My Plans for the Sox Offseason Pt. 2

The Outfield:

The defense has been the major problem for the Sox here. If the right deal has come along, Manny is gone. In this case, the first step is to slide Crisp to left and WMP to center (believe it or not Pena is actually a pretty good CFer). Signing JD Drew seems a reasonable, and also likely, way to fill the hole in RF. We can expect Coco and Wily Mo to hit a bit better than they did last year as they are fully healed from their injuries and as Pena continues to develop. Drew should be a considerable step up from Trot, in terms of offense and defense. The issue with him is injuries; he has missed significant time in his career. However, the only time he missed in the last tree years was the result of a pitch that hit him in the wrist. I think it is a gamble the Sox will take. So this outfield has done a bit of the work in replacing Manny’s production. Regardless, it is a huge step up in defense, which should save some runs.

The Infield:

The other major trade the Sox should look into is Mike Lowell. First base is the place to make up most of Manny’ offense and I think the best way to open that spot is to ship Lowell and move Youks back to third. As with Manny, the right trade has to come along, and I believe the target should be pitching, but as noted a hole has been opened at 1b, which should not be ignored. I think we can/have to assume Pedroia is ready to start full time at second. He should play better D than Loretta, but will not likely match his offense.

So, we have 1b and SS left. As mentioned, I think the Sox should target a slugging first baseman. There may be some possibilities. As a minimum baseline, Pat Burrell is likely available pretty cheap if the Sox are willing to take on his salary. He has not been a first baseman most of his career, but he played 58 games there in 2000 and was apparently decent. This is not to say that they should settle for him. It might be possible with the haul from Manny and Lowell to get someone better. There has been rumor that Mark Teixeira might be available. I don’t know how reasonable this is, but he would be a huge addition This would be something for the FO to get creative about, it would probably require a 3 team deal, as Texas is most likely looking for pitching. Anyway, assuming Burrell is the most likely solution (of those I am discussing), I still think that along with Drew, he can make up much of the hole Manny has left in the offense. As for SS, this all depends on what they can get in trades. It is not likely that they will match Gonzalez’s defense there, but there is a good chance they can upgrade offense from the position. If they can get someone like Wood from Anaheim, it might be worth just plugging him in and hoping for the best. If no good short stops are available, they are stuck with the FA market. In this case, I think it kind of depends on who is set to fill 1b. I am not particularly high on Lugo, but if they can’t get much more offense from first than Burrell he might be a good option. If, on the other hand, they can swing a guy like Teixeira, it makes more sense to sign a defensive specialist, like Counsell, on a one year deal if possible.

The lineup:

So what do we have after all of these moves?

1B Burrell?/Teixeira?
2B Pedroia
3B Youks
SS ? Lugo? Counsell?
RF Drew
CF Pena
LF Crisp
C Varitek, Barajas

And how is that likely to stack up to last year?

Pos D O
1B - +
2B + -
3B - +
SS - +
RF + +
CF + +
LF + -
C + =

Overall, I think this is about even with last year’s lineup. The offense will probably not be as good, but I don’t think by as much as some might. The defense overall should be better; a bit worse in the infield but substantially better in the outfield. Another reason A Teixiera acquisition would be so nice is that he’s so young. He could go into the core group of Youks, Crisp, Pena, Pedroia, Papelbon, Matsuzaka, Beckett, Lester, who along with Papi and whoever comes up (Kotteras? Bowden? Ellsbury?) to make this a very competitive team for 5 or 6 years to come. It’s this core, as mentioned, that makes Manny more appealing to trade.

Adding it all up:

So how could this team stack up?

Defense +
Offense –
Rotation ++ (and if Clemens, one more +)
Bullpen +

I think this would be a better team than the 2006 version. It is debatable overall, but the improvements in the rotation and defense are clear.

What if it doesn’t all come together:

I guess the better question might be “what about when it doesn’t come together.” It sounds as though the Sox are likely to sign Drew (so says Olney), but other than that there is no reason to believe any of the specifics I have talked about will come together. It doesn’t seem that there is as much interest in Lugo as had been anticipated, so he might be worth signing if they can get him for 8 M or less per year.

Other than that, the biggest question is whether Manny will be traded. If the right deal isn’t available, though, the Sox have some options. Crisp and Pens could be moved, and it is not impossible to hold onto these two along with Drew in a big outfield rotation. Possible, I say, but not likely. If one has to go, I would rather hang onto Wily Mo because he seems to have an interesting skill set, and potential to blossom into a top notch slugger. Again, this is contingent on what deals are available for each player, though.

Lowell also doesn’t have to go, but certainly one of the Manny/Crisp/Pena/Lowell gang will need to be swapped if simply for the bullpen’s sake. The bullpen problems are too deep to be fixed in the FA market. The positional flexibility of Youks/Lowell and Crisp/Pena seem to open many options for how this could resolve itself.

There is also the possibility that they will pull of something no one has thought of yet. Theo recently made a comment about how they have gotten away from their skill in finding undervalued players. If he intends to get back to this, we may see some acquisitions in the Bellhorn/Millar/Ortiz mould. It should be an interesting offseason to say the least.

P.S. Sorry for the lack of references and links through this series. This is all stuff I’ve been mulling over the last month with random readings and TV interviews scattered through that time. I am still without a good enough connection to look around and find all of the stuff I’ve read. I'll get back to the hard analysis you have come to expect before long.

My Plans for the Sox Offseason Pt. 1

My first step would have been a strong bid on Mastuzaka. Now, I was too slow to call for that one. As I sadi in my last post, he will be a huge addition and will fill an imporatn hole in the staring rotation. With Matsuzaka on board, we can start looking at how to fill some other holes.

Needs (in no particular order):
Outfield defense
Shortstop
Bullpen help
Closer
6^th starter?
Backup catcher

Assets:
Manny/Crisp/Wily Mo Pena
Lowell
$$ - the salary cap is up to $148 M and the Sox can top that this year without penalty, and the Matsuzaka post shows they are ready to throw some around.

Trading Manny:

Now, I had never been a fan of the idea of trading Manny, but I have recently warmed up to the idea. Manny is one of the best hitters ever, and it has been great to see him hit for the Sox. However there are a few things that have made the idea of a trade more palatable. As the time remaining on his contract shortens and the free agent market inflates, it seems that he might be more appealing to other teams. As such the Sox can likely get a better deal for him now than in the past. Secondly, whether he has or will rescind his latest trade demand, it’s pretty clear that he will not resign here. We will only be missing 2 years of his career – he won't be finishing his career here, so it’s not like we are unloading a career Red Sock. The Red Sox outfield defense is potentially atrocious. It seems unlikely that they can carry Manny, Ortiz and WMP. One will probably be gone by the start of next season, and I like Crisp and Wily Mo as parts of the core of young players the Sox have piled up recently. There is an appeal, as a fan, to the idea of watching the same group play together for the next 5 years or so; something I have yet to really get a chance to see as a young fan. And finally, the positional hole opened by the Sox will likely be easier to fill than some of the holes they are currently looking at in the bullpen and SS. As a result of these conditions, I think the team can get better next year if Manny is traded. I also think Lowell should be moved, but both cases are contingent on the right deal coming along. Between the two, the Sox should acquire pitching first, a slugging 1b second, and lastly a short stop/short stop prospect (that is in order of priority, I don't think they can get all of this).

Pitching:

The addition of Matsuzaka is a huge improvement in the starting rotation. Check the last post for my opinion of him as a pitcher. Papelbon’s move from the bullpen should also help, and I think we can expect Beckett to pitch somewhat better than he did last year. Just from these improvements, the rotation is much better than it was last year. The only sort of question mark is Wakefield, who is coming off an injury. It might make sense for the Sox to find a sort of 5.5 starter to spell him or bump him to the bullpen if he struggles (really more for the sake of the bullpen than the rotation - see below). Of course there is also the question of Clemens. Based on little more than rumors I have heard, it sounds like, if he comes back next year, the Sox are likely the team. In this case, I think the best idea would be to let him start less often, say once a week, rather than starting him up in June like he has done. He would still throw fewer innings than a regular starter, and hopefully stay fresh for the pennant run. This would also fill the sort of 5.5 starer role, giving the other old guys (Wake and Schilling) a rest, maybe help Papelbon stretch his outings out, and help Matsuzaka adapt to pitching more frequently. Gammons has mentioned the possibility of the Sox using a 6 man rotation at times for these reasons, and I think this is a reasonable way getting the intended effect. Clemens is not essential, but if he is a possibility, I would do it in a blink. Think how monsterous that rotation could be:

Schilling
Matsuzaka
Beckett
Papelbon
Wakefield
Clemens/6^th starter-swingman?

If Clemens signs on, that’s a good bet for the best rotation in the league. Even without him this is I think a very good rotation. Apparently the Sox have talked to a couple of Japanese free agents like Tomo Okha who could fill a similar role and help Mats get used to America. That seems a reasonable move, and as long as the 5.5/6th starter can pitch reasonably above replacement level, the rotation can be viewed as a strength for this team next year.

Bullpen:

This is a tough one. I think it really depends on who they can get in trades. Speier seemed to be the only genuinely appealing FA but he is off the market now, and the Sox have reportedly already talked to him. Otherwise, a closer is necessary. Perhaps Lidge or Baez? In any case, I think it might make sense to take a flier on Dotel and hope he has come back from his surgery. If Wakefield is pushed to the pen, he would eat innings, which is very valuable. Even if it’s not Wake, there should be a swingman who can pitch a lot of innings out of the pen and spot start (as mentioned above). We do still have Timlin, Delcarmen and Tavarez coming back, who should all be decent. I don’t think it’s really worth depending on Hansen, he would be better off starting at AAA. That is, unless he lights it up in spring training. The bottom line is that I am not really sure what can be done about the bullpen. The Sox have struggled in this dept the last few years, and I won't pretend to have any solutions. Basically, in my plan the bullpen will be patched up mostly with the best returns possible for Manny and Lowell.

In part 2:
I will look at the lineup, and how it can be changed, specifically to fill the hole left by a trade of Manny, as well as some contingency plans. Then I will add it all up and hopefully you will agree that it would be an improved Red Sox team.

Triumphant Return

Well, I missed the excitement of the playoffs, but I am returning barely too late to comment on the Matsuzaka posting. I will say up front that I am very excited about Matsuzaka. Every projection I have seen would make him a legitimate ace. It seems Boras’s claims that he will be a top 10 pitcher might be uncharacteristically accurate. The Sox have apparently been scouting him for some time, and agree. He will almost certainly be the best pitcher available this year, and has a chance of being the best by a long shot. However, there has been much discussion of the huge amount of money in the posting fee (ESPN is reporting $51 M, but apparently a Red Sox email quotes $42 M). People want to conflate this fee with his presumed salary and they are already calling him the ‘$100 M man.’ Fox Sports has gone so far as to pronounce the Sox “the new Evil Empire.” Obviously I find this endlessly annoying, but I know it should be expected.

Firstly, we have to realize that it is a mistake to conflate salary with the posting fee. The fee does not count towards the salary cap, and it is not drawn out; it is a one time cost. Many people have expressed surprise that the Red Sox, who had recently showed such fiscal conservatism by letting Damon and Pedro walk, would open their checkbooks like they did for Matsuzaka. The difference is simple. The organization has long avoided contracts that would saddle them down in the future as players decline. This, however, is a one time cost; a single check for money that we all know is there. And Matsuzaka is only 26, a very rare commodity to be able to come by. Further, the luxury tax cap has been sort of the working limit for the Sox (Henry publicly appologized after toppong it a couple years ago). Since the posting fee does not count towards this cap, it will not limit their ability to pay other players this winter. In fact, I expect a quite busy off season. But there are several more reasons that this makes sense.

It should not be forgotten that this signing does not cost the Sox a draft pick, as signing an A graded MLB FA would. There are also the issues of investment. The Sox investment works on two levels. The first is the straight-forward investment towards selling caps and broadcasting games in Japan. The second is the investment in Asian players. According to Gammons on ESPNews Tues night, Theo is convinced that 30-40% of the best players in the world will be coming out of Asia, and he has plans to get into this player market by opening academies in Thailand and China. A high profile Asian star could be helpful in attracting players from the area. So it stands to reason that this $51 M is coming from at least 3 or 4 different (presumably somewhat independent) budgets: MLB roster, marketing, and player development, as well as likely some sort of ‘rainy day fund’ to be tapped in the rare instance that, say a 26 year old potential ace is suddenly available. When looked at this way, the number does not seem quite as huge.

It will make even more sense if we look at how it might break down. It is likely that Mats will pitch like a pitcher worth $15-16 M per year. If the Sox think they can sign him for $10-11 M, due to the exclusive negotiation, then posting is immediately worth the balance of (assuming a 4 year deal) $20 M. Perhaps they figure it’s worth another %10 since it doesn’t count towards the cap: $22 M total. I saw it posted in SOSH (sorry, I can't find the link - far too many long threads to look through) that an economist estimated that the Sox will make ~$3.3 M per year in Japan due to Mastuzaka (seems a conservative estimate especially given the marketing creativity the Sox FO has shown). I will use this number simply because it is the only concrete estimate I have see. If 3.3M is right, he is worth a $13.2 M investment for marketing, for a total of $35.2 M. Say, for the sake of even numbers, the draft pick they can retain is worth $0.8 M, for $36 M total. His value as a symbol and spokesman could be about $5 M for attracting Asian players. On top of this it is not a stretch to think that due to the rarity of acquiring such a package is worth another $10 M from a rainy day fund (or JWH’s pocket) to make absolutely sure it happens. Now this doesn’t prove anything, because I’ve completely made most of these numbers up. But it does seem likely that the FO broke the post down in a similar way. I don’t think any of these numbers are unreasonable, (some are even quite conservative) and as such they make the $51 M total make a bit more sense.

All of these values are somewhat contingent on his performance, but I think this may be overstated. Certainly, if he is a total bust, he will attract little attention and thus money and players from Asia. However, the chances for this are sufficiently slim that it’s worth the risk. The important point is that Matsuzaka does not need to be one of the best pitchers in the game for most of these investments to pan out. Consider Hideki Matsui. He is a legitimate #5 hitter (on most teams), for sure, but he is no superstar. That is, he is no superstar in terms of skills in MLB, but he is treated as a superstar in Japan. The Yankees are very well known and followed closely by many in Japan, largely because of Matsui’s presence. And he’s maybe the 4^th best hitter on the team! My point is that, in order to be valuable for marketing and player development in Asia, Matsuzaka doesn’t need to perform above the level of, maybe, a legitimate #2 starter. I think he is very likely to exceed that level of success. My point is not that there is no risk in the signing; there certainly is some, and maybe more than most FA signings. My point is that the cries of “he has never thrown a pitch in MLB!” are exaggerating this risk. Further, as several recent FA signings have shown, it may well be better to take a risk with a big upside than a guaranteed mediocrity.

And the final point: It’s just money. Players are worth much more than money. This is relevant because of implications of this signing with regard to the draft and to player development. Players can be can be used on their own right (you can fill a hole in your lineup from within), they can be turned in to other players (via trade), and if necessary, they can be sold for money. Money can only get you free agents. Free agents are very restricted in quantity, they can only be acquired during the offseason, and they are usually quite expensive. Trades, however, can be made anytime (theoretically, this is ignoring trade deadline complications), and many more players are available by trade at any time than are by free agency. The point is that players are a more flexible asset and thus more valuable from a team building standpoint than their strict salary value might indicate.

All in all this is a very good move by the Sox in my mind. They needed a boost in their rotation, and he was clearly the best available. I am very excited to see him pitch. And according to Will Carroll’s latest account, he does throw the gyroball. Oh joy.

Coming up soon is my 2 part explanation of what I think would be an ideal off season for the Sox. After all, you asked my opinion just by visiting the sight.