Thursday, November 30, 2006
Barry Bonds: The Ultimate Moneyball Pickup?
Let me put it this way: One of the best hitters ever, very likely the best since Ted Willimas retired 46 years ago, is available but noone seems to care. In these simplified terms this is very surprising, especially considering the FA market we have seen so far this fall. If Bonds slips below the $10M per year mark, he would be an unbeleivable value.
I do not mean to say there aren't concearns about signing Bonds. He is not much of a clubhouse presence cough*STERIODS*cough, he would bring a lot of bad publicity to whomever signs him cough*STERIODS*cough, and he could probably not be counted on to play a full season cough*STEROIDS*cough. But he will hit. And he is closing in on this record that will have fans pooring through the gates. So it is not implausible to say that a small market team in need of some fans could ride the wave through the bad publicity of even associating with the man (if it's a short term deal) and come out better in the end. And on a large market intense media team (say NY and Boston) the added press would not change how things operate in principle (hell, it's not like the yanks havn't dealt with known juicers before), in fact it might even be that Bonds, who is clearly used ot the attention, would take some pressure off of his teamates. This could be valuable in markets where the press can be crushing to more sensitive or conscientious players. And his injury concerns will be reduced if he signs with a team the has an opening at DH.
In the end though, it will be those ungodly numbers he put up at the beginning of the century that will get him a job. He simply needs to find a general manager and ownership that cares mostly about winning, and recognizes the value of signing such a hitter for what will likely be a very cheap deal. I can think of a few teams that might fit the mould, but we will see if anything happens. It may very well be that Bonds has alienated himself from the game enough that not even the Billy Beans and George Steinbrenners of the world would touch him with a 10 foot pole (that is to say, 1 year contract).
Personally, I would not mind to see Bonds disappear without getting a chance to catch Hank Aaron. This would avoid much controversy and a potential PR disaster for the game. I bet Bud Selig agrees and I would not be surprised if he is strongly pressuring teams to stay away from the slugger, thus forcing a de facto retirement with a mere 734 hrs. This may, in fact, be one of the main reasons for the silence on the Bonds front.
Either way, it's an interesting question. I think it also forces one to really think about the steroids issue if you frame it this way: "How would I feel if my team signed Bonds?" If you won't admit you'd be a little excited to see him hit, either you possess great integrity to the game, or you are lying. After all, we all know Bonds juiced, but none of us know who did and did not elsewhere in baseball. By many accounts, it is very plausible that your favorite slugger, who you hold above the likes of Bonds, was sticking needles in himslf too. And he did not put up the numbers Bonds did. I guess that's the point: who knows? Look for an interesting conclusion to this one.
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
I Feel Like I'm Taking Crazy Pills!
Let's take apart the two biggest signings so far, one bad and the other nothing less than excrable, and I will explain exactly what is so tremendously idiotic about them. First the bad. The Cubs signed Alfonso Soriano for $136 million over 8 years. This is not the dumbest move I have ever seen but it is pretty dumb. Keith Law put it best: "So, let me get this straight: The team that finished last in the National League in OBP in 2006 (and, not coincidentally, second-to-last in runs scored) with a .319 team mark just signed a left fielder with a .320 career OBP and a .337 OBP in 2006 (both figures exclude intentional walks) to replace a guy with a .365 OBP in 2006." The thing is, Soriano might be worth that much money for a team like the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, etc. Teams that already have high OBPs. However, the Cubs were the worst possible suitor for Soriano in that he just adds to their weaknesses. In addition, they signed him for 8 years! That is an insanely long contract for a guy who counts on his quick bat and speed as important facets of his game. He'll be 38 in the last year of his contract. While some might say that this is okay since players are increasingly playing better for longer, I just don't see a guy with Soriano's strengths (bat speed, foot speed) and weaknesses (poor pitch selection, hands of stone) as a player who will continue to play well as he approaches his middle age years.
Next let's tackle a signing that I think is one of the worst I have seen in years: Juan Pierre's. Once again, a very good breakdown of why this is so terrible is available in Keith Law's blog entry about it. Juan Pierre was a prime contributor to the Cubs OBP woes last year, so he obviously won't help the Dodgers in that category. In addition, they have three good young players (Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and James Loney) who will most likely be able to perform at the level that Pierre does for much less money. I don't mean this is stupid because down the road they will regret having this contract when they have good young players to take Pierre's place. Rather, I mean that all three young players, right now, are about as good as Juan Pierre. Thus, the Dodger's brain trust has taken what would have been a cheap up and coming outfield and turned it into a low-OBP incredibly overpaid outfield. Stupid, stupid, stupid, and that is the last word on that.
My Plans for the Sox Offseason Pt. 2
The Outfield:
The defense has been the major problem for the Sox here. If the right deal has come along, Manny is gone. In this case, the first step is to slide Crisp to left and WMP to center (believe it or not Pena is actually a pretty good CFer). Signing JD Drew seems a reasonable, and also likely, way to fill the hole in RF. We can expect
The Infield:
The other major trade the Sox should look into is Mike Lowell. First base is the place to make up most of Manny’ offense and I think the best way to open that spot is to ship
So, we have 1b and SS left. As mentioned, I think the Sox should target a slugging first baseman. There may be some possibilities. As a minimum baseline, Pat Burrell is likely available pretty cheap if the Sox are willing to take on his salary. He has not been a first baseman most of his career, but he played 58 games there in 2000 and was apparently decent. This is not to say that they should settle for him. It might be possible with the haul from Manny and
The lineup:
So what do we have after all of these moves?
2B Pedroia
3B Youks
SS ?
RF Drew
CF Pena
LF Crisp
C Varitek, Barajas
And how is that likely to stack up to last year?
Pos D O
1B - +
2B + -
3B - +
SS - +
RF + +
CF + +
LF + -
C + =
Overall, I think this is about even with last year’s lineup. The offense will probably not be as good, but I don’t think by as much as some might. The defense overall should be better; a bit worse in the infield but substantially better in the outfield. Another reason A Teixiera acquisition would be so nice is that he’s so young. He could go into the core group of Youks, Crisp, Pena, Pedroia, Papelbon, Matsuzaka, Beckett, Lester, who along with Papi and whoever comes up (Kotteras? Bowden? Ellsbury?) to make this a very competitive team for 5 or 6 years to come. It’s this core, as mentioned, that makes Manny more appealing to trade.
Adding it all up:
Defense +
Offense –
Rotation ++ (and if Clemens, one more +)
Bullpen +
I think this would be a better team than the 2006 version. It is debatable overall, but the improvements in the rotation and defense are clear.
What if it doesn’t all come together:
I guess the better question might be “what about when it doesn’t come together.” It sounds as though the Sox are likely to sign Drew (so says Olney), but other than that there is no reason to believe any of the specifics I have talked about will come together. It doesn’t seem that there is as much interest in
Other than that, the biggest question is whether Manny will be traded. If the right deal isn’t available, though, the Sox have some options. Crisp and Pens could be moved, and it is not impossible to hold onto these two along with Drew in a big outfield rotation. Possible, I say, but not likely. If one has to go, I would rather hang onto
There is also the possibility that they will pull of something no one has thought of yet. Theo recently made a comment about how they have gotten away from their skill in finding undervalued players. If he intends to get back to this, we may see some acquisitions in the Bellhorn/Millar/Ortiz mould. It should be an interesting offseason to say the least.
P.S. Sorry for the lack of references and links through this series. This is all stuff I’ve been mulling over the last month with random readings and TV interviews scattered through that time. I am still without a good enough connection to look around and find all of the stuff I’ve read. I'll get back to the hard analysis you have come to expect before long.
Sunday, November 19, 2006
My Plans for the Sox Offseason Pt. 1
My first step would have been a strong bid on Mastuzaka. Now, I was too slow to call for that one. As I sadi in my last post, he will be a huge addition and will fill an imporatn hole in the staring rotation. With Matsuzaka on board, we can start looking at how to fill some other holes.
Outfield defense
Shortstop
Bullpen help
Closer
6th starter?
Backup catcher
$$ - the salary cap is up to $148 M and the Sox can top that this year without penalty, and the Matsuzaka post shows they are ready to throw some around.
Trading Manny:
Pitching:
The addition of Matsuzaka is a huge improvement in the starting rotation. Check the last post for my opinion of him as a pitcher. Papelbon’s move from the bullpen should also help, and I think we can expect Beckett to pitch somewhat better than he did last year. Just from these improvements, the rotation is much better than it was last year. The only sort of question mark is
Schilling
Matsuzaka
Beckett
Papelbon
Clemens/6th starter-swingman?
In part 2:
I will look at the lineup, and how it can be changed, specifically to fill the hole left by a trade of Manny, as well as some contingency plans. Then I will add it all up and hopefully you will agree that it would be an improved Red Sox team.
Saturday, November 18, 2006
Triumphant Return
Well, I missed the excitement of the playoffs, but I am returning barely too late to comment on the Matsuzaka posting. I will say up front that I am very excited about Matsuzaka. Every projection I have seen would make him a legitimate ace. It seems
Firstly, we have to realize that it is a mistake to conflate salary with the posting fee. The fee does not count towards the salary cap, and it is not drawn out; it is a one time cost. Many people have expressed surprise that the Red Sox, who had recently showed such fiscal conservatism by letting Damon and Pedro walk, would open their checkbooks like they did for Matsuzaka. The difference is simple. The organization has long avoided contracts that would saddle them down in the future as players decline. This, however, is a one time cost; a single check for money that we all know is there. And Matsuzaka is only 26, a very rare commodity to be able to come by. Further, the luxury tax cap has been sort of the working limit for the Sox (Henry publicly appologized after toppong it a couple years ago). Since the posting fee does not count towards this cap, it will not limit their ability to pay other players this winter. In fact, I expect a quite busy off season. But there are several more reasons that this makes sense.
It should not be forgotten that this signing does not cost the Sox a draft pick, as signing an A graded MLB FA would. There are also the issues of investment. The Sox investment works on two levels. The first is the straight-forward investment towards selling caps and broadcasting games in
It will make even more sense if we look at how it might break down. It is likely that Mats will pitch like a pitcher worth $15-16 M per year. If the Sox think they can sign him for $10-11 M, due to the exclusive negotiation, then posting is immediately worth the balance of (assuming a 4 year deal) $20 M. Perhaps they figure it’s worth another %10 since it doesn’t count towards the cap: $22 M total. I saw it posted in SOSH (sorry, I can't find the link - far too many long threads to look through) that an economist estimated that the Sox will make ~$3.3 M per year in
All of these values are somewhat contingent on his performance, but I think this may be overstated. Certainly, if he is a total bust, he will attract little attention and thus money and players from
And the final point: It’s just money. Players are worth much more than money. This is relevant because of implications of this signing with regard to the draft and to player development. Players can be can be used on their own right (you can fill a hole in your lineup from within), they can be turned in to other players (via trade), and if necessary, they can be sold for money. Money can only get you free agents. Free agents are very restricted in quantity, they can only be acquired during the offseason, and they are usually quite expensive. Trades, however, can be made anytime (theoretically, this is ignoring trade deadline complications), and many more players are available by trade at any time than are by free agency. The point is that players are a more flexible asset and thus more valuable from a team building standpoint than their strict salary value might indicate.
All in all this is a very good move by the Sox in my mind. They needed a boost in their rotation, and he was clearly the best available. I am very excited to see him pitch. And according to Will Carroll’s latest account, he does throw the gyroball. Oh joy.
Coming up soon is my 2 part explanation of what I think would be an ideal off season for the Sox. After all, you asked my opinion just by visiting the sight.