My Plans for the Sox Offseason Pt. 2

The Outfield:

The defense has been the major problem for the Sox here. If the right deal has come along, Manny is gone. In this case, the first step is to slide Crisp to left and WMP to center (believe it or not Pena is actually a pretty good CFer). Signing JD Drew seems a reasonable, and also likely, way to fill the hole in RF. We can expect Coco and Wily Mo to hit a bit better than they did last year as they are fully healed from their injuries and as Pena continues to develop. Drew should be a considerable step up from Trot, in terms of offense and defense. The issue with him is injuries; he has missed significant time in his career. However, the only time he missed in the last tree years was the result of a pitch that hit him in the wrist. I think it is a gamble the Sox will take. So this outfield has done a bit of the work in replacing Manny’s production. Regardless, it is a huge step up in defense, which should save some runs.

The Infield:

The other major trade the Sox should look into is Mike Lowell. First base is the place to make up most of Manny’ offense and I think the best way to open that spot is to ship Lowell and move Youks back to third. As with Manny, the right trade has to come along, and I believe the target should be pitching, but as noted a hole has been opened at 1b, which should not be ignored. I think we can/have to assume Pedroia is ready to start full time at second. He should play better D than Loretta, but will not likely match his offense.

So, we have 1b and SS left. As mentioned, I think the Sox should target a slugging first baseman. There may be some possibilities. As a minimum baseline, Pat Burrell is likely available pretty cheap if the Sox are willing to take on his salary. He has not been a first baseman most of his career, but he played 58 games there in 2000 and was apparently decent. This is not to say that they should settle for him. It might be possible with the haul from Manny and Lowell to get someone better. There has been rumor that Mark Teixeira might be available. I don’t know how reasonable this is, but he would be a huge addition This would be something for the FO to get creative about, it would probably require a 3 team deal, as Texas is most likely looking for pitching. Anyway, assuming Burrell is the most likely solution (of those I am discussing), I still think that along with Drew, he can make up much of the hole Manny has left in the offense. As for SS, this all depends on what they can get in trades. It is not likely that they will match Gonzalez’s defense there, but there is a good chance they can upgrade offense from the position. If they can get someone like Wood from Anaheim, it might be worth just plugging him in and hoping for the best. If no good short stops are available, they are stuck with the FA market. In this case, I think it kind of depends on who is set to fill 1b. I am not particularly high on Lugo, but if they can’t get much more offense from first than Burrell he might be a good option. If, on the other hand, they can swing a guy like Teixeira, it makes more sense to sign a defensive specialist, like Counsell, on a one year deal if possible.

The lineup:

So what do we have after all of these moves?

1B Burrell?/Teixeira?
2B Pedroia
3B Youks
SS ? Lugo? Counsell?
RF Drew
CF Pena
LF Crisp
C Varitek, Barajas

And how is that likely to stack up to last year?

Pos D O
1B - +
2B + -
3B - +
SS - +
RF + +
CF + +
LF + -
C + =

Overall, I think this is about even with last year’s lineup. The offense will probably not be as good, but I don’t think by as much as some might. The defense overall should be better; a bit worse in the infield but substantially better in the outfield. Another reason A Teixiera acquisition would be so nice is that he’s so young. He could go into the core group of Youks, Crisp, Pena, Pedroia, Papelbon, Matsuzaka, Beckett, Lester, who along with Papi and whoever comes up (Kotteras? Bowden? Ellsbury?) to make this a very competitive team for 5 or 6 years to come. It’s this core, as mentioned, that makes Manny more appealing to trade.

Adding it all up:

So how could this team stack up?

Defense +
Offense –
Rotation ++ (and if Clemens, one more +)
Bullpen +

I think this would be a better team than the 2006 version. It is debatable overall, but the improvements in the rotation and defense are clear.

What if it doesn’t all come together:

I guess the better question might be “what about when it doesn’t come together.” It sounds as though the Sox are likely to sign Drew (so says Olney), but other than that there is no reason to believe any of the specifics I have talked about will come together. It doesn’t seem that there is as much interest in Lugo as had been anticipated, so he might be worth signing if they can get him for 8 M or less per year.

Other than that, the biggest question is whether Manny will be traded. If the right deal isn’t available, though, the Sox have some options. Crisp and Pens could be moved, and it is not impossible to hold onto these two along with Drew in a big outfield rotation. Possible, I say, but not likely. If one has to go, I would rather hang onto Wily Mo because he seems to have an interesting skill set, and potential to blossom into a top notch slugger. Again, this is contingent on what deals are available for each player, though.

Lowell also doesn’t have to go, but certainly one of the Manny/Crisp/Pena/Lowell gang will need to be swapped if simply for the bullpen’s sake. The bullpen problems are too deep to be fixed in the FA market. The positional flexibility of Youks/Lowell and Crisp/Pena seem to open many options for how this could resolve itself.

There is also the possibility that they will pull of something no one has thought of yet. Theo recently made a comment about how they have gotten away from their skill in finding undervalued players. If he intends to get back to this, we may see some acquisitions in the Bellhorn/Millar/Ortiz mould. It should be an interesting offseason to say the least.

P.S. Sorry for the lack of references and links through this series. This is all stuff I’ve been mulling over the last month with random readings and TV interviews scattered through that time. I am still without a good enough connection to look around and find all of the stuff I’ve read. I'll get back to the hard analysis you have come to expect before long.