Well, I missed the excitement of the playoffs, but I am returning barely too late to comment on the Matsuzaka posting. I will say up front that I am very excited about Matsuzaka. Every projection I have seen would make him a legitimate ace. It seems
Firstly, we have to realize that it is a mistake to conflate salary with the posting fee. The fee does not count towards the salary cap, and it is not drawn out; it is a one time cost. Many people have expressed surprise that the Red Sox, who had recently showed such fiscal conservatism by letting Damon and Pedro walk, would open their checkbooks like they did for Matsuzaka. The difference is simple. The organization has long avoided contracts that would saddle them down in the future as players decline. This, however, is a one time cost; a single check for money that we all know is there. And Matsuzaka is only 26, a very rare commodity to be able to come by. Further, the luxury tax cap has been sort of the working limit for the Sox (Henry publicly appologized after toppong it a couple years ago). Since the posting fee does not count towards this cap, it will not limit their ability to pay other players this winter. In fact, I expect a quite busy off season. But there are several more reasons that this makes sense.
It should not be forgotten that this signing does not cost the Sox a draft pick, as signing an A graded MLB FA would. There are also the issues of investment. The Sox investment works on two levels. The first is the straight-forward investment towards selling caps and broadcasting games in
It will make even more sense if we look at how it might break down. It is likely that Mats will pitch like a pitcher worth $15-16 M per year. If the Sox think they can sign him for $10-11 M, due to the exclusive negotiation, then posting is immediately worth the balance of (assuming a 4 year deal) $20 M. Perhaps they figure it’s worth another %10 since it doesn’t count towards the cap: $22 M total. I saw it posted in SOSH (sorry, I can't find the link - far too many long threads to look through) that an economist estimated that the Sox will make ~$3.3 M per year in
All of these values are somewhat contingent on his performance, but I think this may be overstated. Certainly, if he is a total bust, he will attract little attention and thus money and players from
And the final point: It’s just money. Players are worth much more than money. This is relevant because of implications of this signing with regard to the draft and to player development. Players can be can be used on their own right (you can fill a hole in your lineup from within), they can be turned in to other players (via trade), and if necessary, they can be sold for money. Money can only get you free agents. Free agents are very restricted in quantity, they can only be acquired during the offseason, and they are usually quite expensive. Trades, however, can be made anytime (theoretically, this is ignoring trade deadline complications), and many more players are available by trade at any time than are by free agency. The point is that players are a more flexible asset and thus more valuable from a team building standpoint than their strict salary value might indicate.
All in all this is a very good move by the Sox in my mind. They needed a boost in their rotation, and he was clearly the best available. I am very excited to see him pitch. And according to Will Carroll’s latest account, he does throw the gyroball. Oh joy.
Coming up soon is my 2 part explanation of what I think would be an ideal off season for the Sox. After all, you asked my opinion just by visiting the sight.
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