My Plans for the Sox Offseason Pt. 1

My first step would have been a strong bid on Mastuzaka. Now, I was too slow to call for that one. As I sadi in my last post, he will be a huge addition and will fill an imporatn hole in the staring rotation. With Matsuzaka on board, we can start looking at how to fill some other holes.

Needs (in no particular order):
Outfield defense
Shortstop
Bullpen help
Closer
6^th starter?
Backup catcher

Assets:
Manny/Crisp/Wily Mo Pena
Lowell
$$ - the salary cap is up to $148 M and the Sox can top that this year without penalty, and the Matsuzaka post shows they are ready to throw some around.

Trading Manny:

Now, I had never been a fan of the idea of trading Manny, but I have recently warmed up to the idea. Manny is one of the best hitters ever, and it has been great to see him hit for the Sox. However there are a few things that have made the idea of a trade more palatable. As the time remaining on his contract shortens and the free agent market inflates, it seems that he might be more appealing to other teams. As such the Sox can likely get a better deal for him now than in the past. Secondly, whether he has or will rescind his latest trade demand, it’s pretty clear that he will not resign here. We will only be missing 2 years of his career – he won't be finishing his career here, so it’s not like we are unloading a career Red Sock. The Red Sox outfield defense is potentially atrocious. It seems unlikely that they can carry Manny, Ortiz and WMP. One will probably be gone by the start of next season, and I like Crisp and Wily Mo as parts of the core of young players the Sox have piled up recently. There is an appeal, as a fan, to the idea of watching the same group play together for the next 5 years or so; something I have yet to really get a chance to see as a young fan. And finally, the positional hole opened by the Sox will likely be easier to fill than some of the holes they are currently looking at in the bullpen and SS. As a result of these conditions, I think the team can get better next year if Manny is traded. I also think Lowell should be moved, but both cases are contingent on the right deal coming along. Between the two, the Sox should acquire pitching first, a slugging 1b second, and lastly a short stop/short stop prospect (that is in order of priority, I don't think they can get all of this).

Pitching:

The addition of Matsuzaka is a huge improvement in the starting rotation. Check the last post for my opinion of him as a pitcher. Papelbon’s move from the bullpen should also help, and I think we can expect Beckett to pitch somewhat better than he did last year. Just from these improvements, the rotation is much better than it was last year. The only sort of question mark is Wakefield, who is coming off an injury. It might make sense for the Sox to find a sort of 5.5 starter to spell him or bump him to the bullpen if he struggles (really more for the sake of the bullpen than the rotation - see below). Of course there is also the question of Clemens. Based on little more than rumors I have heard, it sounds like, if he comes back next year, the Sox are likely the team. In this case, I think the best idea would be to let him start less often, say once a week, rather than starting him up in June like he has done. He would still throw fewer innings than a regular starter, and hopefully stay fresh for the pennant run. This would also fill the sort of 5.5 starer role, giving the other old guys (Wake and Schilling) a rest, maybe help Papelbon stretch his outings out, and help Matsuzaka adapt to pitching more frequently. Gammons has mentioned the possibility of the Sox using a 6 man rotation at times for these reasons, and I think this is a reasonable way getting the intended effect. Clemens is not essential, but if he is a possibility, I would do it in a blink. Think how monsterous that rotation could be:

Schilling
Matsuzaka
Beckett
Papelbon
Wakefield
Clemens/6^th starter-swingman?

If Clemens signs on, that’s a good bet for the best rotation in the league. Even without him this is I think a very good rotation. Apparently the Sox have talked to a couple of Japanese free agents like Tomo Okha who could fill a similar role and help Mats get used to America. That seems a reasonable move, and as long as the 5.5/6th starter can pitch reasonably above replacement level, the rotation can be viewed as a strength for this team next year.

Bullpen:

This is a tough one. I think it really depends on who they can get in trades. Speier seemed to be the only genuinely appealing FA but he is off the market now, and the Sox have reportedly already talked to him. Otherwise, a closer is necessary. Perhaps Lidge or Baez? In any case, I think it might make sense to take a flier on Dotel and hope he has come back from his surgery. If Wakefield is pushed to the pen, he would eat innings, which is very valuable. Even if it’s not Wake, there should be a swingman who can pitch a lot of innings out of the pen and spot start (as mentioned above). We do still have Timlin, Delcarmen and Tavarez coming back, who should all be decent. I don’t think it’s really worth depending on Hansen, he would be better off starting at AAA. That is, unless he lights it up in spring training. The bottom line is that I am not really sure what can be done about the bullpen. The Sox have struggled in this dept the last few years, and I won't pretend to have any solutions. Basically, in my plan the bullpen will be patched up mostly with the best returns possible for Manny and Lowell.

In part 2:
I will look at the lineup, and how it can be changed, specifically to fill the hole left by a trade of Manny, as well as some contingency plans. Then I will add it all up and hopefully you will agree that it would be an improved Red Sox team.