Barry Bonds: The Ultimate Moneyball Pickup?

On of the stories this offseason that seems not to be getting too much attention is the free agency of one Barry Bonds. As the offseason wears on, and the apparent lack of interest from MLB teams continues, Bonds may become one of the best cheap pickups in baseball. Cheap, I say in terms of $/runs created; it is unlikely that he will ever be cheap in a general sense.

Let me put it this way: One of the best hitters ever, very likely the best since Ted Willimas retired 46 years ago, is available but noone seems to care. In these simplified terms this is very surprising, especially considering the FA market we have seen so far this fall. If Bonds slips below the $10M per year mark, he would be an unbeleivable value.

I do not mean to say there aren't concearns about signing Bonds. He is not much of a clubhouse presence cough*STERIODS*cough, he would bring a lot of bad publicity to whomever signs him cough*STERIODS*cough, and he could probably not be counted on to play a full season cough*STEROIDS*cough. But he will hit. And he is closing in on this record that will have fans pooring through the gates. So it is not implausible to say that a small market team in need of some fans could ride the wave through the bad publicity of even associating with the man (if it's a short term deal) and come out better in the end. And on a large market intense media team (say NY and Boston) the added press would not change how things operate in principle (hell, it's not like the yanks havn't dealt with known juicers before), in fact it might even be that Bonds, who is clearly used ot the attention, would take some pressure off of his teamates. This could be valuable in markets where the press can be crushing to more sensitive or conscientious players. And his injury concerns will be reduced if he signs with a team the has an opening at DH.

In the end though, it will be those ungodly numbers he put up at the beginning of the century that will get him a job. He simply needs to find a general manager and ownership that cares mostly about winning, and recognizes the value of signing such a hitter for what will likely be a very cheap deal. I can think of a few teams that might fit the mould, but we will see if anything happens. It may very well be that Bonds has alienated himself from the game enough that not even the Billy Beans and George Steinbrenners of the world would touch him with a 10 foot pole (that is to say, 1 year contract).

Personally, I would not mind to see Bonds disappear without getting a chance to catch Hank Aaron. This would avoid much controversy and a potential PR disaster for the game. I bet Bud Selig agrees and I would not be surprised if he is strongly pressuring teams to stay away from the slugger, thus forcing a de facto retirement with a mere 734 hrs. This may, in fact, be one of the main reasons for the silence on the Bonds front.

Either way, it's an interesting question. I think it also forces one to really think about the steroids issue if you frame it this way: "How would I feel if my team signed Bonds?" If you won't admit you'd be a little excited to see him hit, either you possess great integrity to the game, or you are lying. After all, we all know Bonds juiced, but none of us know who did and did not elsewhere in baseball. By many accounts, it is very plausible that your favorite slugger, who you hold above the likes of Bonds, was sticking needles in himslf too. And he did not put up the numbers Bonds did. I guess that's the point: who knows? Look for an interesting conclusion to this one.